“… Human beings have pretty much been the same. Headlines are constantly announcing the innovative, the radical, and the groundbreaking. When something is presented as novel or different, look to the past, and you will always find a precedent there. But remember the historical context; don’t expect things to be identical. A general rule: What is happening now has happened before and will happen again.
By way of illustration, take the Internet revolution. Many people reacted as though something entirely new had emerged. The Net is but one of many technological innovations to have presented themselves over history. Remember the “new economy” of the 1990s? Those with historical perspective can point to many such revolutions: the railroad, the clipper ship, airplanes, electricity, radio, telephone, television, the computer. Investments in all of those “new eras,” at one time or another, ended badly.
As soon as I hear everyone making claims for something that supposedly is innovative and unprecedented, I check whether the market is overheated and often pull out my capital. Be extremely doubtful when you have people proclaiming, “It’s different this time.” Historically, nothing emerges as so entirely different; such claims are indicative of a state of mass hysteria. I sold short shares in high technology between 1999 and 2000, and it was right around that time that the commodity index I created in 1998 started to rise.
Again, study history very carefully. Learn precisely what happened and what did not. This will help you understand what is about to happen in the world…”
From: A Gift To My Children – Jim Rogers